Voting ends in California on Nov. 5, and nearly 3.3 million ballots had already been returned as of Thursday.
It’s not shocking that more than half of them are from voters 65 and older, the most reliable voters.
What’s more noteworthy is that the turnout so far is higher among registered Republicans (16.5%) than Democrats (15.4%), especially given the attacks on mail balloting from former President Donald Trump and some Republicans in Congress that fueled the refusal to accept his defeat in 2020.
In that election, the California Republican Party set up 50 ballot drop boxes in Los Angeles, Fresno and Orange counties. State officials called it an effort to confuse voters, but eventually lost in court trying to investigate it.
Since then, however, state GOP leaders have further embraced mail voting, which became permanent in 2021. In part, it’s a nod to reality: The party hasn’t won a statewide election since 2006 and mail balloting isn’t going anywhere.
Party chairperson Jessica Millan Patterson, on social media: “I made it my mission to play by the rules the (California Democratic Party) have made and embrace early voting and ballot harvesting, and those efforts have paid off.”Patterson appeared on Fox News Channel this week to say she’s glad to see some counterparts in Nevada and other battleground states also urging early votes, though Republicans are also challenging many aspects of mail balloting.
There are occasional glitches: Nevada County officials say a printing error found this week in bar codes on some mail ballots won’t affect accuracy, but could slow the count, CBS Sacramento reports.
In other election news: A report published Thursday by the University of Southern California Center for Inclusive Democracy highlights the importance of rallying Black, Latino and Asian-American voters to determine which party controls Congress.
Researchers found that in the 43 most competitive U.S. House districts — six of which are in California — a large portion of eligible voters belong to these communities. But in 2022, voter turnout among these groups was often lower than the general population. That has big implications for November: In most of this year’s competitive districts, the number of eligible voters in these groups who didn’t vote in 2022 was “by many orders of magnitude” more than what was needed to win in 2022 House races.
In California’s 13th District, for example, there were more than 12,000 Black, 170,000 Latino and 23,000 Asian-American eligible voters who did not cast a ballot in 2022. But Republican John Duarte beat Democrat Adam Gray by only 564 votes. Theyre facing off again this year.For the record: This item was updated to clarify the outcome of the 2020 drop box case with the state Republican Party and its stance on mail voting.
VotingMatters: CalMatters has a new local lookup tool to find out what you’ll be voting on for the November election. We’re also hosting a series of public events across California. The next ones are today in Sunnyvale (co-hosted by India Currents), Saturday at the Brisbane library and Sunday at the Portola Valley library. Sign up here. We’ve added more ways to access our Voter Guide, including fully translated versions in Chinese and in Korean, as well as in Spanish. Learn about the propositions on TikTok and Instagram.
Read all about what we’re doing to inform California voters from our engagement team.
Focus on inequality: Each Friday, the California Divide team delivers a newsletter that focuses on the politics and policy of inequality. Read the latest edition and subscribe.
Other Stories You Should Know
Ethnic politics play out in Assembly race
State Assembly candidate Sade Elhawary greets residents at an event in Los Angeles on Oct. 19, 2024. Photo by Ted Soqui for CalMattersAfter 12 years representing South Los Angeles, Democratic Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer is leaving the Legislature in December. But the answer to who his successor will be illustrates the complex racial politics between the shrinking African-American community that helped shape the district, and the growing number of Latinos who seek equitable representation.
As CalMatters Capitol reporter Alexei Koseff explains, running for Jones-Sawyer’s seat is Sade Elhawary, the daughter of Guatemalan and Egyptian immigrants, against Efren Martinez, the son of Mexican immigrants.
The historically Black neighborhood elected the first African-Americans to the state Legislature more than a century ago, and it was vital to California Black culture and politics during the first half of the 20th century. But these days, the 57th District is about 71% Latino and 17% Black. That’s not too surprising: Latinos are now the largest ethnic group in the state, making up 40% of the population. But only a third of the 120-member Legislature is Latino.
As both candidates court voters in both communities, lawmakers stress the importance of unity.
Assemblymember Lori Wilson, a Suisun City Democrat and chairperson of the California Legislative Black Caucus: “We cannot be divided. This is not the oppression Olympics. We’ve both been oppressed.”Read more about what this Assembly race means for California in Alexei’s story.
In other legislative news: Assemblymember Mike Fong is something of a political unicorn, even among Democrats who rarely vote “no.” Fong has said “aye” during committee votes and pushed the green “yes” button on his desk on the Assembly floor nearly 9,400 times since taking office in 2022.
He finally voted “no,” sort of. Find out from CalMatters Digital Democracy reporter Ryan Sabalow what he rejected.
CA fuel and water rules
An aerial view of Threemile Slough in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta near Rio Vista on May 19, 2024. Photo by Loren Elliott for CalMattersLet’s dive into some environmental news:
Fuel standards: On Nov. 8, the California Air Resources Board is poised to vote on proposed updates to California’s low-carbon fuel standards, which are supposed to encourage cleaner fuels.
But the changes could increase gas prices, writes CalMatters climate reporter Alejandro Lazo, leading Republican legislators, members of Congress and California residents to urge the board to delay the vote. (As of Thursday, the average pump price in California was $4.61 a gallon for regular unleaded, $1.46 more than the national average).
How much prices may go up is unclear: Last year the board estimated 47 cents a gallon by 2025, but has since backed away, and has yet to provide a new number. Earlier this month, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation — passed during a special season he called — that requires oil refineries to maintain a minimum stock of inventory, which he says will prevent price spikes.
But the new rules could reduce various greenhouse gases by the equivalent of annual emissions from 120 million vehicles. And in an exclusive interview with CalMatters, air board Chairperson Liane Randolph said the standards are key to meeting the state’s climate goals.
Learn more about the proposed fuel standard changes in Alejandro’s story.
Delta water: In 2020, California sued to block rules from the Trump administration regulating how the state allocates water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, arguing the rules would threaten endangered fish. For that, Trump has warned he’ll withhold federal wildfire aid if reelected, which provoked Gov. Newsom to draft a contingency funding plan.
But environmentalists are raising flags that a new water plan — developed by the Biden and Newsom administrations — isn’t cutting it either. As CalMatters’ Alastair Bland reports, the plan could be more harmful because it doesn’t provide enough protection to fish while they’re migrating through the Delta.
State and federal networks draw water from the Delta to supply a combined 29.5 million people and 3.75 million acres of farmland. The feds are expected to release their final environmental review of options next month, and a final decision will be made in partnership with state water officials.
Read more about the potential Delta water plan in Alastair’s story.
And lastly: Props on the air
Community members watch a CalMatters explainer video at a VotingMatters event at the Contra Costa County Library in Lafayette on Oct. 22, 2024. Photo by Florence Middleton for CalMattersThis week, CalMatters continues to share versions of our “Prop. in a Minute” videos with viewers of our partner PBS SoCal. Watch the ones on Prop. 34, Prop. 35 and Prop. 36.
SoCalMatters airs at 5:58 p.m. weekdays on PBS SoCal.
California Voices
CalMatters columnist Dan Walters: Californians are worried about crime, and Prop. 36 is a referendum on Democratic leaders’ approach to criminal justice.
California Voices deputy editor Denise Amos: Prop. 33, which would give local governments more power to limit rent costs, comes with implications that have some rent control proponents concerned.
Other things worth your time:
Some stories may require a subscription to read.
CA Democrats in tight US House races support Prop. 36 // Los Angeles Times
CA election watchdog sues state Senate candidate on missing records // The Sacramento Bee
Internet goes crazy on milk at center of Sonoma ballot measure // San Francisco Chronicle
BART workers fired due to COVID vaccine mandate to get $1M each // ABC7 San Francisco
US Forest Service halts prescribed burns in CA to prevent wildfires // KQED
Where CA gas will come from when Phillips refinery shuts down // Los Angeles Times
Will CA voters pay more for school repairs, despite property taxes? // LAist
LAs promise of “car free” Olympics running short on time and money // Los Angeles Times
Former Alameda County DA endorses recalling her successor // The Mercury News
SF Black leaders say mayor’s Dream Keeper must be saved // San Francisco Chronicle
SF needs 200 mental health beds, but what will it cost? // The San Francisco Standard